Trump has crashed again

Donald Trump says the ceasefire with Iran is over. Military action has resumed, the Strait of Hormuz is once again at the centre of the conflict, and the economic consequences could be profound.

In this video, I explain why wars are never just military events. They are always economic events too. They reshape trade, disrupt supply chains, drive up commodity prices and create inflationary pressures that spread throughout the global economy.

The Strait of Hormuz carries a huge share of the world’s oil and much of its jet fuel. More sustained disruption affects not only energy markets but also trade in fertilisers, industrial chemicals, and critical manufacturing supplies. Businesses will respond by delaying investment, consumers will become more cautious, and financial markets will become increasingly volatile.

I’ve argued for months that the greatest danger from this conflict would be economic rather than military. If this escalation continues,  as seems likely, the risk of recession rises significantly, not because markets will panic overnight, but because the resulting uncertainty will steadily undermine confidence and investment.

Wars are always about economic power, control over resources and the revenues they generate. This one is no different. Trump just can't let go of a prize he cannot have, and so he's at risk of crashing the world economy again.